Why Estimates Don't Work in Software Development.

Clients want certainty when it comes to software development, whether for Web sites, ERP systems or other Web development projects. They often ask for time and cost estimates. But the reality is that it is almost impossible to give an accurate estimate. Software development is a complex process full of unexpected twists and turns. While we may have a general idea of how long something might take, breaking down a project into exact hours or days remains a hopeless task.

Web development and the development of ERP systems are dynamic processes, similar to putting together a puzzle. As the project progresses, more and more pieces fall into place. But unlike a puzzle, an unexpected change - such as a new feature or a change in an API - can disrupt the entire process. This quickly makes previous estimates obsolete. That's why it makes more sense to work with a flexible budget rather than stick to rigid estimates.

Explaining these uncertainties to clients is often a challenge, especially with projects such as websites and ERP systems. Clients like to have a fixed price up front, without fully realizing how much work is needed to achieve a good end result. Unexpected problems such as bugs, changes in software or new requirements during the project make it difficult to give a reliable estimate.

When thinking about budgets, it is important to consider the value we create by developing software. For example, a well-designed Web site can be crucial to making a strong first impression with customers. An ERP system can make the difference between achieving hundreds of thousands of dollars in additional profit. So what is the real value of such a system? Imagine that you calculate that the ERP system we are going to build will generate one million euros in additional sales each year. In such a case, it makes much more sense to focus on the value created, rather than on a fixed hourly rate.

This brings to mind an anecdote about Pablo Picasso. A woman once asked him, "Pablo, I'm a big fan of yours. Can you draw something for me?" Pablo agreed, grabbed a sheet of paper and within ten minutes drew something. Then he said, "That will cost 10,000 euros." The woman responded in surprise, "But Pablo, it only took you ten minutes!" To which Picasso replied, "It took me a lifetime of practice to be able to make this in ten minutes."

The moral of this story is that the value of work depends not only on the time put into it, but also on the knowledge, experience and skills made available.

Instead of relying on estimates, it is much more effective to think in terms of budgets and remain flexible during the project. By collaborating with your software team and being open to change, you'll achieve good results faster, whether it's a Web site, an ERP system or any other Web development project. In fact, software development is an iterative process, with continuous improvements being made until the desired result is achieved.

Another problem with estimates, especially in Web development, is that they are often inefficient. A slow developer may earn more because he takes longer to do the work, while a faster developer may introduce more bugs. This makes it difficult to determine a fair and accurate hourly rate, both for simple Web sites and complex ERP systems. Therefore, it is better to work with a budget so that the team has room to improve the project as it goes along.

Since the beginning of the computer industry, we have been trying to estimate the duration of software development, but time after time, this proves not to work. This is true for Web sites, ERP systems and other Web development projects. It is time to accept that estimates are ineffective. Instead, we need to focus on methods that do work, such as using budgets and keeping the scope open during development. That way we can better address the real challenges and ultimately deliver better software, Web sites and ERP systems.

It is essential to focus on the end result and the road to it, rather than on setting unrealistic expectations in advance. Software development, whether web development or ERP systems, is a creative and iterative process that requires a flexible approach, not rigid estimates.